By 2010, India will have most no. of diabetics

NEW DELHI: Only 7 out of every 100 adult Indians are diabetic.

This may appear to be a blessing, given that we do almost everything possible -- from sedentary lifestyle, faulty diet to high stress -- to attract such an affliction.

The global projections by International Diabetes Federation (IDF) also show that India has a much lesser prevalence of the disease than most other countries including US.

But that is just about the only satisfying bit of statistics unveiled in IDF's latest Diabetes Atlas.

IDF, which tracks the global spread of this scourge, says that by next year, the country will be home to 50.8 million diabetics, making it the world's unchallenged diabetes capital. And the number is expected to go up to a whopping 87 million -- 8.4% of the country's adult population -- by 2030.

China stands second in this infamous table with 43.2 million diabetes cases at present, which is expected to increase to 62.6 million by 2030.

The disease will prove costly for India, both in terms of lives lost and money wasted. In India, it will kill around 10.07 lakh people in the age group of 20-79 years every year -- the majority being women (5.81 lakh) from 2010.

Diabetes will cost the world economy dear -- $376 billion in 2010, or 11.6% of total world healthcare expenditure. Though India will spend only 1% of the total diabetes spending worldwide, the amount itself is staggering -- $2.8 billion. US, on the other hand, will account for $198 billion or 52.7% of the total diabetes spending worldwide. By 2030, diabetes is expected to cost the world economy $490 billion.

According to the latest figures released on Tuesday night at Montreal, Pakistan, which now stands 7th in the "top 10 worst affected countries with diabetes" list with 7.1 million diabetics, will jump three places by 2030 to become the 4th worst affected with 13.8 million diabetics.

Another of India's neighbours, Bangladesh, which at present does not figure in this list, will make an entry in another two decades, to claim the 7th worst affected country slot with 10.4 million diabetics.

Globally, the number of diabetes patients has risen sharply. While in 1985, 30 million people had diabetes, the number rose to 150 million in 2000. In 2010, 285 million people (6.6% of the global population in the age group 20-79) were found to be diabetic. However, by 2030, an estimated 435 million people are expected to suffer from this disease -- 7.8% of the adult population.

Dr Anoop Misra, director of the department of diabetes at Fortis Healthcare, told TOI from Montreal, "It is certain that India is on the ascending curve of the diabetes epidemic. The effort to prevent it in India must, therefore, start early with proper nutrition in pregnancy, prevention of low birth weight and proper physical activity from 10 years of age."

IDF president Prof Jean Claude Mbanya said, "The data from the atlas shows that the epidemic is out of control. No country is immune and no country is fully equipped to repel this common enemy."

Region-wise, Western Pacific records the highest number of diabetics at present (77 million), followed by South-East Asia (59 million).

Age-wise, the IDF report says, the worst affected are the 40-59-year-olds. By 2010, 132 million people in this age group are expected to suffer from diabetes. However, by 2030, this number will increase to 188 million.

The report points out another interesting trend -- women are the worst affected by this disease. In 2010, one million more women than men have diabetes (143 million women as against 142 million men). The difference is expected to increase to six million by 2030 (222 million women against 216 million men).

The urban population, as expected, has a higher incidence of the disease. By 2010, the number of people with diabetes in urban areas will be 113 million compared to 78 million in rural areas. By 2030, it is expected that this discrepancy will increase to 228 million people with diabetes in urban areas and 99 million in rural communities.

Globally, by 2010, four million deaths in the 20-79 age group will be due to diabetes -- 6.8% of global all-cause mortality in this age group. Majority of these deaths will be in India, China, US and Russia.