Colorado economy predicted to rebound quickly

Colorado, one of the last states to succumb to the U.S. recession, appears poised to be among the first states to escape its grasp, according to the University of Colorado at Boulder's leading economist.

"We may be one of the first states out," Richard Wobbekind told a gathering of clients of Denver-based financial-planning firm Sharkey, Howes & Javer on Thursday in Denver.

If technology and business spending fuel the recovery, as some analysts expect given anemic consumer spending, then Colorado is in a strong position to benefit, Wobbekind said.

The higher energy and commodity prices that accompany a recovery should benefit Colorado, especially the more rural areas in the state.

A broader U.S. recovery will also result in more goods being transported, which will benefit Colorado.

Retail sales in the state, which are expected to fall 10 percent this year, are expected to rise 4.4 percent next year, Wobbekind predicted.

Forecasts call for the state's job growth to return to a positive 0.4 percent next year, fourth-best among all states.

Colorado, which experienced negative job growth this year, ranked 29th among states on that measure after being among a handful of states to see job gains in 2008.

Any recovery will be sluggish at best, Wobbekind cautioned. But unlike some economists, he doesn't expect a second downturn or double-dip recession later in 2010 or 2011.

"We think we have enough momentum to stay positive," he said.

The Leeds Business Confidence Index, which measures expectations of business leaders in the state, also is showing more positive signs.

Business leaders said they expect to see sales increase next year, although increasing profits remain a more questionable prospect.